The Q3 2026 Report

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Gas hit a record for the season, new tariffs took effect on goods from 60 trading partners, the Fed raised rates and the national debt passed $40 trillion. Congress funded the government only to Dec 11 and pushed its biggest decisions past the Nov 3 election, while the courts blocked a new birthright citizenship order and refereed a summer-long fight over how you vote.

IN THIS REPORT

Most of what changed for households this quarter did not come from Congress, where the House held recorded votes on only 15 days and the Senate on 25. Nearly every big decision was put off until after Election Day, Nov 3. In the same 13 weeks, the president signed 20 executive orders, new rules for student loans and imports took effect, and judges blocked a new limit on birthright citizenship and ruled on how mail ballots are handled on Nov 3.

Changed for you

Blocked or struck down

Pushed past Election Day

THE ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

The most consequential decisions came from the White House, the Fed and the courts; most of Congress's big decisions were put off until after Election Day on Nov 3.

Counts are ours, from House Clerk roll calls, Federal Register and public-law records, and Treasury debt data for July 1 to Sep 30. Party-line is defined in the glossary.^1,2,3

Prices were the quarter's biggest story for most households, and the forces behind them came from every corner of Washington: a war that pushed fuel higher, new tariffs from the White House, a rate increase from the Federal Reserve, and a Congress that passed no relief on any of them.

PRICES · $4.48 a gallon, Sep 24 (AAA) · No gas tax holiday got a vote

Prices fell in June, then climbed after U.S. strikes on Iran resumed July 7, reaching $4.48 for regular on Sep 24, the highest ever for that time of year.^5,6 In May, President Trump backed suspending the federal gas tax, 18.4 cents a gallon, for a time, but no bill to do so got a vote.⁷ He later called the higher cost worth it and predicted prices would fall fast; Democrats made gas prices a centerpiece of their message.

WHITE HOUSE · Section 301, July 24 · Canada, Aug 22 and Sep 29 · Brand-name drugs, July 31 and Sep 29

After the Supreme Court ruled in Feb that an emergency-powers law does not allow tariffs, the administration bridged the gap with a temporary 10% tariff on nearly all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. When that hit its legal 150-day limit on July 24, the U.S. Trade Representative replaced it under a different law, Section 301, with tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on the 60 largest U.S. trading partners, the source of 99.4% of U.S. imports: 10% for 17 economies, including Canada, Mexico, India and the U.K., and 12.5% for most others. The stated reason: these trading partners fail to keep out goods made with forced labor. Many goods are exempt, including those that qualify under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, goods already under other tariffs such as steel and aluminum, some oil and gas, fertilizers, food and farm products, drugs and civil aircraft.¹⁰

Canada got its own treatment. Using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely invoked provision, the president put a 50% duty on a list of Canadian goods starting Aug 22, widened the list Sep 15 to cover items from cheese and furniture to small cars, and banned imports of Canadian beer, wine and spirits starting Sep 29. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs scheduled to start Sep 8.¹¹ A 100% tariff on brand-name, patented drugs began applying to drugmakers named in the order July 31 and to all others Sep 29. It is 15% for drugs from the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland, and 0% for the U.K. under a drug-pricing deal (cut from 10% in Aug). Companies that sign both drug-pricing and U.S. manufacturing deals with the administration also pay 0%; generics are exempt.¹²

What about refunds? They are flowing, but to importers, not consumers. Treasury counted $125 billion in customs refunds in the budget year through Aug, about $110 billion of it for the struck-down tariffs by CBO's estimate.^13,14 We found no refund process for consumers who paid higher prices, and no official estimate of what the new tariffs cost a typical household. Independent estimates of what tariffs cost the average household range from about $820 for 2026, counted as a tax increase (Tax Foundation, Sep 10), to about $1,100 a year in higher prices under current policy (Yale Budget Lab, Aug 24).¹⁵

FEDERAL RESERVE · Held July 29, 9-3 · Raised Sep 16, 12-0 · New range 3.75% to 4.00%

The Federal Reserve, which sets rates independently of the White House and Congress, held steady July 29, with three officials dissenting in favor of an increase. On Sep 16 it raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point, unanimously, its first increase since 2023. "Inflation remains elevated," its statement said.¹⁶ The increase came under Chair Kevin Warsh, whom President Trump named in Jan, saying he expected Warsh to cut rates. Markets had expected the move.¹⁷ Consumer prices were 3.4% higher than a year earlier in both the July and Aug readings, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.¹⁸ For households, a higher rate generally means costlier credit card balances, car loans and new mortgages, and slightly better returns on savings.

Health costs are set to rise for many families in 2027, and the windows to change your coverage open this month. One executive order also called for changing what the government recommends for your children's shots.

NO VOTE · Extra ACA subsidies expired Jan 1 · Open enrollment Nov 1 to Jan 15

The extra Affordable Care Act subsidies expired at the start of the year. The House passed a three-year extension in Jan; the Senate has not passed it.³⁰ Insurers have proposed a median 15% premium increase for 2027, according to a KFF review of 276 insurers' filings.³¹ On Sep 29 the Senate voted 48-51 against taking up a resolution to overturn the administration's new ACA marketplace rule; Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was the only Republican voting yes.

AGENCY · CMS, Sep 28 · Open enrollment Oct 15 to Dec 7

Medicare is ending a program that held down premiums for standalone Part D drug plans after 2026. It projects the average standalone plan will cost $36 a month in 2027, up from $35.09, and the average Medicare Advantage premium will fall to $12.00 from $14.37. Averages hide wide swings by plan, so compare during open enrollment.³²

REQUIRED BY JAN 1, 2027 · Court refused to block, late July

Under the 2025 tax and spending law, adults covered through Medicaid expansion will have to show 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering; every state must start by Jan 1, 2027. In late July a federal judge in Massachusetts refused to block the rule carrying it out, ruling against 25 states and the District of Columbia. The Urban Institute estimates 4.9 million to 10.1 million people could lose Medicaid in 2028 from the work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks combined.³³

EXECUTIVE ORDER · EO 14420 · Aug 10

The order calls for recommending vaccines against 11 diseases for every child. Shots for hepatitis A, hepatitis B, rotavirus, meningococcal disease, flu and COVID-19 move to "shared clinical decision-making," meaning parents and doctors decide case by case. It asks states to revisit school vaccine requirements.³⁴

MARK YOUR CALENDAR

Medicare open enrollment begins and runs to Dec 7. ACA marketplace enrollment opens Nov 1, with insurers seeking a median 15% increase.

With the Nov 3 election weeks away, all three branches spent the summer on the rules for voting. Most of the fight ran through the courts on emergency requests. Here is where each question stands for Nov 3, and how it got there.

BEFORE THE DEADLINE

Registration deadlines vary by state; many fall in Oct, some have already passed, and some states let you register on Election Day. Check yours, and your early voting dates, at vote.gov.

The Supreme Court finished its term June 30, so the quarter opened with a stack of rulings taking effect, then the Court spent the summer on emergency requests. Lower courts, meanwhile, ruled on a string of new federal policies. Here are the decisions most likely to touch your life.

UPHELD · Trump v. Barbara · 6-3 · June 30 NEW ORDERS · EO 14418 and 14419, Aug 6 BLOCKED · Sep 2

The Court held that children born in the U.S. to parents who are here unlawfully or temporarily are citizens at birth under the 14th Amendment, striking down the president's Jan 2025 order. Chief Justice Roberts wrote for the majority, joined by Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Barrett and Jackson; Justice Kavanaugh concurred in the judgment and dissented in part. Justices Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch dissented.³⁶

Five weeks later, the president signed a narrower order denying citizenship papers in four categories, including children of foreign government employees and births arranged through paid surrogacy or fraud, and a second order letting officials refuse visas to people who plan to give birth in the U.S.⁴¹ On Sep 2 a federal judge in Maryland blocked key parts of the first order for a certified class of children. The administration was expected to appeal.⁴²

All decided in the second quarter; we include them because their effects arrived this quarter. Sources: the Court's opinions, listed in our sources.³⁶

THE COURT'S TERM IN ONE NUMBER

decisions split 6-3 along the justices' usual ideological lines, up from 9% of decisions the term before. Another 29 were unanimous.⁵¹

The war Congress has not voted on. The 1973 War Powers Resolution says U.S. forces in hostilities must be withdrawn within 60 days unless Congress authorizes the fight. Congress has not authorized the war with Iran, which began Feb 28. U.S. strikes resumed July 7 after a ceasefire broke down, and the administration notified Congress in a letter dated July 10, which it says starts a new 60-day clock.⁵ By Sep 22 the Pentagon counted 19 U.S. service members dead, from hostile and nonhostile causes, and more than 820 wounded.⁵²

The votes. The House adopted two resolutions to end the war, 214-208 on July 23 and 220-204 on Sep 15, the second with seven Republicans in favor. These were concurrent resolutions, which never reach the president and do not carry the force of law. The Senate, which had adopted one such resolution in June, went the other way three times this quarter: 47-49 on July 23, 49-50 on July 30, and 49-50 on Sep 24. In the last vote Republicans Collins, Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) voted yes and Democrat John Fetterman (Pa.) voted no.

DECIDED AT THE MARGINS

The combined margin of the Senate's three defeats this quarter of measures to end the Iran war, on July 23, July 30 and Sep 24.

What it costs. At a July 21 Senate hearing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put the war's cost at $37.5 billion, up from $29 billion in May, per Al Jazeera.⁵³ Asked for a total, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said, "I can't answer the question on what it will cost, because the enemy has a vote," per PBS NewsHour.⁵⁴ The administration's request includes nearly $70 billion more for the war; none was approved this quarter.

PAPER TRAIL · THE NATIONAL DEBT ON SEP 30, 2026

It passed $40 trillion on Aug 18 and grew about $709 billion over the quarter, roughly $7.7 billion a day. That is about $117,000 for every person in the country.^3,59

The deficit. The government spent $1.99 trillion more than it took in during the budget year that ended Sep 30, $218 billion more than the year before, per the Congressional Budget Office's first estimate, released Oct 8. Revenue rose 3%, to $5.40 trillion; spending rose 6%, to $7.40 trillion.⁶⁰

The fastest-growing bill is interest. Net interest on the debt cost $1.14 trillion for the year, up 11%. It now costs more than Medicare ($1.07 trillion) and more than the Pentagon's military budget ($916 billion), and it pays for past borrowing rather than any current program.

LAW · Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, H.R. 6500 (P.L. 119-103) · Senate 90-6, Aug 8 · House 370-48, Sep 1 · Signed Sep 2

None of the 12 regular spending bills was finished by the Oct 1 start of the budget year, so this law funds agencies at largely current levels through Dec 11. It also extends highway, transit and rail programs, the National Flood Insurance Program and several veterans programs, keeps WIC nutrition aid at current participation, and blocks a cost-of-living raise for members of Congress.⁶¹ The House first passed its own, mostly party-line stopgap, 220-205 on July 21; the Senate wrote the version that became law.

Both parties' fingerprints. A stopgap rolls last year's spending forward without either party defending it line by line. This one passed with large majorities of both: in the Senate only six members voted no (Republicans Bill Cassidy and Rand Paul, Democrats Tim Kaine, Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren, and independent Bernie Sanders), and in the House 19 Republicans and 29 Democrats voted no.

The fight ahead. The House bills would raise defense spending about 28%, per the American Action Forum; Senate Democrats want nondefense spending to get the same increase.⁶² The debt limit is not an issue this fall: a 2025 law raised it by $5 trillion, to about $41.1 trillion, and debt subject to the limit was about $40.0 trillion on Aug 31.⁶³

A death in the Senate. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), 71, a four-term senator who chaired the Budget Committee, died July 11. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, sworn in July 14 as the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate. She can serve until Jan 3; the seat is on the Nov 3 ballot. Republicans still hold 53 seats.⁶⁴

A one-seat cushion in the House. With two seats vacant, 433 members are seated and 217 votes pass a bill when everyone votes. Republicans hold 218. Rep. Kevin Kiley (Calif.) left the Republican Party in March and sits as an independent. That math is why so many House votes this quarter were decided by single digits.

Every law Congress enacted this quarter, the major bills that passed one chamber, the bills stopped at the Senate's 60-vote line, and selected executive orders.

Awaiting signature on Sep 30: S. 2403, the Retire through Ownership Act (employee stock ownership plans), cleared Congress Sep 16.

The Federal Register lists 20 orders for the quarter (Nos. 14415 to 14434). The White House website files No. 14423, on a U.S. Space Academy, under proclamations, so its list shows 19.²

ANALYSIS · The Nov 3 election shaped much of what Congress did and did not do this quarter. This section reads the record for motive and looks ahead, which takes judgment; we hold both parties to the same test.

Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats. Because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties for Republicans, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. About a third of the Senate is on the ballot.

House. A majority is 218 seats. The 2024 election produced 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, so Democrats need a net gain of three seats from that starting point, though new maps drawn in several states since 2024 have reshuffled some battlegrounds.

History. The president's party has lost House seats in every midterm since World War II except 1998 and 2002.

Historical patterns, not a prediction.

Republicans

Democrats

Both parties spent the quarter building contrast more than law. Republicans chose votes that put Democrats on record against ideas Republicans believe their voters favor: photo ID, limits on lawmakers' stock trades and fraud enforcement. Democrats chose ground where they believe the majority is exposed: gas prices, health premiums and a war Congress never authorized. Neither approach needed a bill to become law to succeed, which is part of why so few did.

The bigger shift may be outside Congress. With the House out after Sep 16, much of what voters will feel before the election, from tariffs to ballot rules, was decided by the administration and the courts. Whoever controls Congress in Jan inherits that pattern.

OPINION · THE EDITOR'S VIEW

Count the changes a typical household will notice in the next year: new tariffs, new student loan rules, a slimmer childhood vaccine list, a higher interest rate and new rulings on how ballots are handled. Almost none of them came from a recorded vote in Congress. EOs, agencies, the Fed and judges made them instead, with judges often deciding emergency requests without full arguments. Congress, meanwhile, held recorded votes on 15 days in the House, funded the government for 72 days, and voted repeatedly on a war it has neither authorized nor ended.

Executive action is fast, the Fed is independent by design, and courts exist to check the other two. But the trade is accountability. A law comes with a roll call that has your representative's name on it. An executive order, an emergency ruling or a stopgap that rolls last year's spending forward does not. We would make the same point if the parties traded places, because both have leaned on executive power when they held the White House and on stopgaps when they could not agree. The question on Nov 3 is not only which party wins. It is whether the people you send to Congress want those decisions back.

What a comment is. Before most new federal rules become final, the agency must publish a draft and take written comments from the public. Anyone may comment, and the agency must consider the relevant points before it finishes the rule; it does not count comments like votes. The three proposals above, due Nov 2, Nov 30 and Dec 9, are open now.

Your costs this fall are being shaped more by tariffs, the war and the Fed than by any law passed this quarter. The government stays open until Dec 11. Your mail ballot works as usual on Nov 3; check your registration now. If you buy your own insurance or are on Medicare, shop during open enrollment, because prices are changing. Parents: claim your child's Trump Account at trumpaccounts.gov; your child may be eligible for $1,000 from the government or $250 from the Dells. And the biggest decisions in Congress, on spending, the war and health subsidies, come after you vote.

Executive order: A written directive from the president to federal agencies. It has the force of law for the executive branch but cannot override a statute, and courts can block it.

Proclamation: A presidential statement, often used to set tariffs under laws Congress has passed that delegate that power.

Tariff: A tax on imported goods, paid by the importer, who may pass the cost on in prices.

Proposed rule and comment period: Before most federal rules take effect, the agency publishes a draft and must accept and consider public comments, usually for 30 to 60 days.

Emergency docket: Requests the Supreme Court decides quickly, often without full briefing or argument, such as whether to pause a lower court's order while a case continues.

Federal Reserve: The central bank. It sets a benchmark interest rate independently of the president and Congress.

Roll-call vote: A recorded vote that lists how each member voted. A voice vote leaves no individual record.

Party-line vote: As we count it, a vote where most Republicans voted one way and most Democrats the other. Members voting "present" are not counted.

Cloture: The Senate's vote to end debate so a bill can get a final vote. It usually takes 60 votes. Nominations need only a simple majority.

Joint vs. concurrent resolution: A joint resolution goes to the president and can become law. A concurrent resolution does not, and has no force of law.

Law without signature: If the president holds a bill for 10 days, not counting Sundays, while Congress is in session, it becomes law without being signed.

Methods. Coverage period: July 1 to Sep 30, 2026, plus rulings decided earlier whose effects arrived in the quarter. Vote tallies count members voting yes or no; members not voting or voting "present" are excluded unless noted. We checked every floor tally against the House Clerk and Senate roll-call records, executive orders and rules against the Federal Register, rulings against the Supreme Court's own opinions and orders, and fiscal figures against Treasury and CBO data. Party-line counts are our own, using the definition in the glossary. Debt per person uses the Census Bureau's population clock. Quotations name the speaker and date, with a numbered note to the source below. Where a news report and an official record differed, we used the official record.

Our numbered notes below link to every source. Full source titles and dates are listed in the Sources pages of the PDF edition.

Notes, in order of first citation

1. clerk.house.gov
2. federalregister.gov, whitehouse.gov
3. fiscaldata.treasury.gov, api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov, api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov (2)
4. eia.gov
5. wfae.org, gvwire.com
6. gasprices.aaa.com
7. axios.com, thefiscaltimes.com, foxnews.com
8. moneytalksnews.com, wbtv.com, allsides.com
9. jeffries.house.gov
10. ustr.gov, ustr.gov (2), taxnews.ey.com, clearytradewatch.com

11. federalregister.gov, public-inspection.federalregister.gov, troutman.com, business-standard.com, internationaltradeinsights.com
12. federalregister.gov, federalregister.gov (2), mayerbrown.com
13. api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov, api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov (2)
14. cbo.gov, crfb.org
15. taxfoundation.org, budgetlab.yale.edu
16. federalreserve.gov, federalreserve.gov (2)
17. 13abc.com, mynorthwest.com
18. bls.gov, bls.gov (2)
19. federalregister.gov, edfinancial.studentaid.gov, ag.ny.gov
20. ed.gov

21. federalregister.gov, trumpaccounts.gov, irs.gov
22. investamerica.org, axios.com
23. usda.gov, theshelbyreport.com
24. bipartisanpolicy.org, lw.com
25. govinfo.gov, clerk.house.gov, senate.gov, rollcall.com
26. federalregister.gov
27. federalregister.gov
28. federalregister.gov, federalregister.gov (2)
29. whitehouse.gov, rcrcnet.org
30. cbsnews.com, legis1.com

31. kff.org
32. cms.gov, cms.gov (2)
33. statnews.com, ajmc.com, healthcarefinancenews.com, rwjf.org
34. federalregister.gov, whitehouse.gov
35. supremecourt.gov, supremecourt.gov (2), findlaw.com, democracydocket.com, wypr.org
36. supremecourt.gov, supremecourt.gov (2), supremecourt.gov (3), supremecourt.gov (4), supremecourt.gov (5), supremecourt.gov (6), supremecourt.gov (7), supremecourt.gov (8), supremecourt.gov (9), supremecourt.gov (10), supremecourt.gov (11)
37. supremecourt.gov, nprillinois.org
38. news.bgov.com, democracydocket.com
39. supremecourt.gov, scotusblog.com, ncsl.org
40. adimpact.com, campaignsandelections.com

41. federalregister.gov, federalregister.gov (2)
42. staradvertiser.com, envoyglobal.com
43. penncapital-star.com, natlawreview.com, latintimes.com
44. tax.thomsonreuters.com, thestar.com.my
45. gvwire.com, wisconsinwatch.org
46. supremecourt.gov, scotusblog.com
47. monitor.icef.com, federalregister.gov
48. thecollegeinvestor.com
49. federalregister.gov, justice.gov
50. federalregister.gov

51. scotusblog.com
52. cbsnews.com, newsweek.com
53. aljazeera.com
54. pbs.org
55. breakingdefense.com, rankandpay.org
56. bakerbotts.com, kelleydrye.com
57. kunc.org, eff.org
58. stripes.com
59. census.gov
60. cbo.gov

61. astho.org, naco.org, masstransitmag.com
62. americanactionforum.org, punchbowl.news, crfb.org
63. api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov
64. wistv.com, npr.org
65. pbs.org
66. rollcall.com, cnbc.com, aha.org
67. uscourts.gov, nominationnotes.substack.com
68. pbs.org, rollcall.com
69. npr.org, rollcall.com
70. financialservices.house.gov, financialservices.house.gov (2)

71. govinfo.gov, govinfo.gov (2), archives.gov
72. rollcall.com
73. utilitydive.com, legis1.com, legis1.com (2), nationalfisherman.com
74. opb.org
75. speaker.gov
76. healthcare.gov
77. federalregister.gov, public-inspection.federalregister.gov
78. federalregister.gov, federalregister.gov (2)
79. supremecourt.gov, supremecourt.gov (2), supremecourt.gov (3)

Additional official records and statements

80. senate.gov
81. senate.gov, senate.gov (2), senate.gov (3), senate.gov (4), senate.gov (5), senate.gov (6), senate.gov (7), senate.gov (8), senate.gov (9), senate.gov (10), senate.gov (11), senate.gov (12), senate.gov (13), senate.gov (14), senate.gov (15)
82. clerk.house.gov, clerk.house.gov (2), clerk.house.gov (3), clerk.house.gov (4), clerk.house.gov (5), clerk.house.gov (6), clerk.house.gov (7), clerk.house.gov (8), clerk.house.gov (9), clerk.house.gov (10), clerk.house.gov (11), clerk.house.gov (12), clerk.house.gov (13), clerk.house.gov (14), clerk.house.gov (15), clerk.house.gov (16), clerk.house.gov (17), clerk.house.gov (18)
83. whitehouse.gov, whitehouse.gov (2), whitehouse.gov (3), whitehouse.gov (4), whitehouse.gov (5), whitehouse.gov (6), whitehouse.gov (7)
84. pressgallery.house.gov

Additional news reports and analysis

85. cbsnews.com
86. americanbanker.com
87. rollcall.com
88. usarice.com, dtnpf.com, dtnpf.com (2), naco.org
89. asaonline.com, hklaw.com

The Quarterly Constituent is nonpartisan. We report what the federal government did, sourced to public records, and keep our own judgments to the sections labeled as analysis and opinion.